The probability of market decline in June is increasing

　　From the market changes in May in recent years, it can be seen that the driving force behind the price increase mainly comes from the relatively high price base supported by the rebound in April, as well as various production cuts, maintenance, and unexpected news. The May 2024 market is also in a high base stage after the April rise. Although there is currently no news of production cuts or maintenance, the news of Putin's visit to China has already formed a continuous driving force on the nickel futures market, and short-term support for the scrap stainless steel market continues to exist.

　　In the future, considering that the impact of unexpected news is gradually dissipating, the subsequent news of the US imposing tariffs on electric vehicles, medical supplies, solar products, etc. in China may create a bearish drag on the demand side, increasing the possibility of pressure on the stainless steel industry in June. Overall, after short-term support, the trend of the scrap stainless steel market may conform to the historical trend of ups and downs, and there is a high possibility of a risk of a high-level decline in the future.

　　In addition, the future demand for waste stainless steel is expected to gradually become weak. From the performance of the finished material market, the futures market has been continuously rising recently, but the follow-up of spot market transactions is average. Finished material inventory has risen again. In the first half of May, the total inventory of stainless steel market was 902800 tons, an increase of 21700 tons compared to the second half of April, with a magnitude of 2.46%. Apart from the increase in inventory pressure, demand expectations are relatively weak. It is expected that the decline in market demand in May and June will be 1.19 percentage points and 0.61 percentage points higher than the decrease in supply, respectively. In the traditional off-season of consumption, the increasing supply and demand pressure on finished materials may limit the demand for waste stainless steel in the market, increasing the possibility of pressure on the future waste market. This is also the best evidence of the increasing probability of a decline in the scrap stainless steel market in June.